Juan Xu：Drivers of food price in China: A heterogeneous panel SVAR approach, Agricultural Economics.
【学术期刊】《Agricultural Economics》，2021年第1期。
【作者简介】徐娟，中南财经政法大学统计与数学学院教授，硕士生导师。主要研究方向是宏观经济与政策效应评估，近年来聚焦于宏观经济政策、环境成本测度等领域。在权威期刊发表多篇文章，荣获教育部、省级科研奖励多项，并主持国家社科基金、教育部基金及多项省级基金。
【主要观点】Employing a heterogeneous panel structural vector autoregressive (SVAR) model, this paper identifies the causal flows between the endogenous variables via directed acyclic graphs method. The empirical results from impulse response functions and variance decompositions suggest sizeable cross‐province variations. The main driving force of food price is the price inertia shock, rather than the agricultural output or the vertical chain of price transmission shocks. The findings support the view that price expectation is the key shifter of food price. Moreover, the shocks in the vertical chain of price transmission are only weakly linked to food price. Our findings are robust to an alternative panel SVAR model identified via Cholesky decomposition.
政策启示：The result that food price is mainly driven by food price inertia shock directly leads to a policy implication: the central government should pay more attention to managing price expectations when trying to control food price inflation.
